It is harvest time in rural America.  Farmers are working long hours gathering the crops that have been planted, fertilized, watered and worried over since springtime.  While the cycle of planting and harvesting is an annual one on the farm, for family businesses, the cycle can span decades or even generations. There are many different ways to classify family businesses, but one simple distinction that we find ourselves coming back to often is that between planters and harvesters. So what time is it for your family business?  Is it planting season or harvesting season? 

The good news – or maybe it’s the bad news, depending on your perspective – is that overly optimistic projections are not necessarily the result of intentional errors on the part of your family business managers.  Rather, behavioral economists tell us that humans are prone to overconfidence as a result of what they refer to as cognitive biases. We address five cognitive biases contributing to overly optimistic forecasts.

If family business directors are going to make good capital allocation decisions, they need to know what the right hurdle rate is.  If the hurdle rate is set too low, the family may experience weak future returns.  Setting the hurdle rate too high, however, introduces the risk that the family business will pass on attractive investment opportunities.  In this article, we consider how the hurdle rate relates to the weighted average cost of capital.

All family businesses need to evaluate how they are investing for future growth. Managers and directors must navigate carefully between the risks of depressed future returns through over-investment (i.e. empire building) and losing existing competitive advantages through insufficient reinvestment. The long-term sustainability of the family business depends on it.